Whatever happens, hearts will be broken

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Whatever happens, hearts will be broken

When politicians go for elective seats, they expect two outcomes; winning and losing. There will be joy. Or heartache.

Such is the nature of politics, which seldom promises another eventuality. What starts as ambition ends, for the unlucky ones, in tears.

Little-known newcomers could upset the status quo. But chances of losing out to a popular competitor, who matches one’s political might, are much higher.

The latter scenario is likely to play out in coming weeks when political parties conduct nominations, which have a reputation of cutting down self-styled mighty politicos to size. 

General elections are more ruthless.

Few people know this better than former Kiambu Governor William Kabogo, who was humbled in the 2017 Jubilee Party primaries by former Governor Ferdinand Waititu.

The Orange Democratic Movement is facing a challenge in Kenya’s second-largest city. 

Four aspirants currently eye ODM’s ticket in the Mombasa governorship race: Mvita MP Abdulswamad Shariff Nassir, businessman Suleiman Shahbal, Deputy Governor William Kingi and Kisauni MP Ali Mbogo.

Abdulswamad and Shahbal are considered front runners. Abdulswamad has earned national recognition by chairing the National Assembly Public Investments Committee and is a staunch loyalist of ODM leader Raila Odinga. The stakes are high for him.

The same applies in Homa Bay County, where an ODM ticket almost guarantees victory in August. 

County Woman Representative Gladys Wanga and former Nairobi Governor Evans Kidero are perceived to be leading in the race to succeed Governor Cyprian Awiti.

Until recently, Suba South MP John Mbadi was part of the equation. But he stepped down from the race and withdrew from Suba South parliamentary race, too.

As Wanga seeks to move higher, Kidero is seeking a return to politics. The ODM nominations may fulfil one’s dream and kill others.

Last week Wanga got a direct nomination. A piqued Kidero declared he will run on a different party’s ticket. 

Jubilee has its version in Nyandarua. Facing off for the ticket are Governor Francis Kimemia and former Water Cabinet Secretary Sicily Kariuki. 

A loss for Kimemia means he no longer enjoys being the county boss. 

A loss for Kariuki carries the sting of having resigned from Cabinet only to end up in the cold.

Such competitions may play out within coalitions where partners seem to favour fielding joint candidates.

In Nairobi County, for instance, Kenya Kwanza was prepping a heartbreak for one of its frontrunners in the governorship race. 

On Saturday Nairobi Senator Johnson Sakaja received the coalition’s blessing to run for governor and Margaret Wanjiru for senate. 

Both had wanted to be governors. Millicent Omanga got the nod to run for Woman Rep. Looks like negotiated democracy, if not the Iron Law of Oligarchy, carried the day.

Wanjiru was initially touted as UDA’s favourite.

Kenya Kwanza faces a slightly different scenario in Kiambu County, which promises more high-level casualties. 

The race features former governors Kabogo and Waititu, MPs Moses Kuria (Gatundu South), Patrick Wainaina aka Jungle (Thika Town) and Kiambu Senator Kimani Wamatangi are fighting within Kenya Kwanza, though from varying parties.

The Kiambu governorship race will, most likely, go down to the wire and will also involve current Governor James Nyoro. 

The result could end the political careers of some prominent faces, especially so if their respective preferred presidential aspirant fails to clinch the presidency.

Kajiado County offers similar prospects for Azimio. Governor Joseph ole Lenku recently decamped to ODM from Jubilee to, perhaps, avoid meeting former Governor David ole Nkedianye in Jubilee’s primaries.

Nkedianye had recently moved from ODM to Jubilee to face Ole Lenku in the Jubilee primaries. Their shifts imply that they will eventually face it out on the ballot, and one of them faces a career-threatening future.

The same could be replicated in Siaya County for Azimio. Siaya Senator James Orengo looks poised to fly ODM’s flag.

In Azimio, he faces former Rarieda MP Nicholas Gumbo of the United Democratic Movement (UDM).

 It is unlikely that either would shelve their ambition, which would set up a contest in August.

The general election will take care of the rest, who may include Nakuru Governor Lee Kinyanjui or Senator Susan Kihika.

Source: The Standard